In the earlier part of last year I mentioned to Greg that I thought the RBA was going to cut even though all the press at the time and the pundits were still talking, aggressively, about rate hikes.
I’d seen on the ABC news that the talk was all about the need to hike but it didn’t ring true – at least not in my world.
My world is slightly different to Greg’s and the so-called punditry. I might be an old financial markets professional with an economics degree but I’m first an foremost a mum these days with kids going into years 1 and 3 in 2012. But my training and instincts remain and the calls for hikes didn’t ring true.
The two main reasons for this were that I had noticed a change in behavior of mums and of the meat aisle at the local supermarket. Mums had stopped having cake with coffee and the second coffee, well that was now gone – in just 6 short months. Down at the supermarket I’d noticed two things. First, the expensive cuts of meat were cheaper – no one was buying them.
But more importantly I’d noticed what I called a wall of sausage. There was much more sausage on sale than I’d every seen before. So I couldn’t see how the RBA was going to raise rates.
And so I found myself with kids at Charlestown Square last Friday buying school shoes. What struck me was that on January 6th School Shoes were already on sale. I’ve not seen that before, not this early in January, not in January to be honest, and I wonder just how bad things really are in this economy.
There seems less people up where we live these holidays and we’re normally inundated given we are only two and a half hours north of Sydney. It just seems harder to make ends meet.
So I wonder just how much the RBA is going to need to cut this year. Every kid needs school shoes. If they’re on sale already the economy needs a hand.