US Jobs data hits markets – Aussie Dollar and Euro bounce

By Greg McKenna Stocks plunged more than 2 percent in the US on Friday as the release of a terribly low non-farm payrolls result of just 69,000 and an uptick in the unemployment rate suggest that the US recovery is faltering. The Dow has been dragged into negative territory for the year now and the […]

Sell in May – Markets have a shocker

By Greg McKenna We saw a bit of position squaring yesterday for month end after assets like the Aussie Dollar made a fresh low for the year before rallying. Likewise in US equities the early weakness gave way to a better performance but by the end of play the pressure was unable to be withstood […]

Markets – Time for a bounce?

On Saturday morning I sat down and wrote the Trading week wrap over at MacroBusiness where I looked at a number of markets and what the price action and thus the technicals, mostly, suggested about the near term direction. After a week like last week I expected to have my bearish bias reinforced but by […]

Market Rout Intensifies

I’ve posted the links and the MacroBusiness morning over at MacroBusiness today and I wanted to highlight a few things. Firstly, after a brief hiatus in Asian trade yesterday the selling returned with a vengeance overnight in equity markets as the pending Euro implosion gather steam. Indeed UK Prime Minister David Cameron ratcheted up the […]

Australian Dollar Breakdown – Bulls run away.

Cross posted with MacroBusiness. The confluence of events over the past week has taken the wind from the Australian Dollar’s sails and contributed to the drop through support in a manner that suggests this move has further to run.  Indeed I have been calling it back below parity for some time now – we just […]

Australian Recession coming?

Two things happened yesterday that suggest to me that the Australian economy could be headed for recession. The first was the collapse of the First Fleet trucking company and the second was the release of the Australian Industry Group’s Performance of Service Index (PSI) which slumped 7.4 points. Houses and Holes covered it well in […]

Squaring the Circle – bonds and equities cant both be right

While I was on holidays in Fiji recently I read a book about the Archimedes Palimpsest which was my first real exposure to the study of Archimedean and Greek mathematics outside of school. It really was fascinating but in the context of markets and the economy I was struck by the quote attributed to him […]

RBA Panic? Not on your Nellie!

The RBA has done the right thing and let the inflation outlook give them room to cut rates. The Wordle summary is below and highlights the key drivers of growth and inflation. So in the context of what they said last month, and where the economy is I find it interesting to have read many comments about the […]

The RBA will cut today and then at least 3 more times

The RBA is going to cut today it seems but my sense is they will do so reluctantly and with extreme caution as they remain concerned about the impact of Mining Boom Mark II after the inflationary pulse in 2008 that was a direct result of the extra burden that Mining Boom I placed on the […]

Australian Dollar Outlook – bulls on the run

Well the Chinese PMI bounce faded quickly for the Aussie Dollar didn’t it. As I said on Sunday/Monday, I am looking forward to the next few days trade before Easter because it will tell us a lot about where the market is positioned and what it believes. So we had a brief rally earlier this week but […]