Australian Dollar failing at resistance

Last night’s price action in the Euro and the US Dollar suggested, quite rightly, that the market remains worried about Spain. Indeed the Spanish 10 year yield closed at 7.16% and the Euro fell back from the Asian highs. The Australian Dollar on the other hand has been holding in really well and sits just […]

Markets Squeeze higher – but Germans reject pooled eurozone debt

You might be asking a question about how the Australian Dollar is back above parity after a night where Spanish yields hit just around 7% where Italy’s bond auction got sold but at substantially higher rates than just last month and only a couple of days before the Greek election. Please don’t believe anyone who […]

Contrarian View – Australian Dollar and Euro vulnerable to a squeeze higher

When I did links this morning over at Macro Business I posted an article noting that US money continued to flow out of Europe last month. I also saw that the Euro was back above 1.25 and the Aussie Dollar was around 0.9950. Chart courtesy of AVAFX Mobile off my iPhone Given the European malaise […]

Australian Dollar Rally ends – Bernanke steals the punch bowl

Ben Bernanke stole the punch bowl for commodities and commodity currencies last night which had rallied on the back of the Chinese rate cuts and freeing up of deposit and lending rate controls. But the Fed Chairman with his usual equanimity simply didn’t want to play ball and add more stimulus and markets were no […]

On the RBA, GDP and the Australian Dollar

I haven’t posted much this week as I have been busy so please don’t think I’ve been dodging my recession call in the wake of yesterday’s stellar GDP release. I’m about to hit the road so here are some quick thoughts. On the current market bounce: The markets good too bearish, priced too much in […]

RBA rate cut – 25 or 50 points.

I think by now its clear that the RBA went 50 basis points last month because it knew that the economy needed some monetary stimulus but equally that the Banks were going to hold some back. The Majors were actually more generous in passing on a big proportion of the cuts than some of the […]

US Jobs data hits markets – Aussie Dollar and Euro bounce

By Greg McKenna Stocks plunged more than 2 percent in the US on Friday as the release of a terribly low non-farm payrolls result of just 69,000 and an uptick in the unemployment rate suggest that the US recovery is faltering. The Dow has been dragged into negative territory for the year now and the […]

Australian miracle ending, Dollar sell off not finished yet

By Greg McKenna May was a big month for me – I made some big calls which, as we enter June I am more convinced in then even at the time I first made them. The first big call was the question of whether or not Australia might be facing a recession which I posed […]

Sell in May – Markets have a shocker

By Greg McKenna We saw a bit of position squaring yesterday for month end after assets like the Aussie Dollar made a fresh low for the year before rallying. Likewise in US equities the early weakness gave way to a better performance but by the end of play the pressure was unable to be withstood […]

Why is the Australian Dollar up this morning?

As I write the Australian Dollar is up 0.62% to 0.9819 after making a low last week around 0.9690. Indeed the Aussie has, ever so slightly, broken through the top of the hourly downtrend channel it has been in since the run toward 1.05 in late April. Now it’s only 6.30 in the morning and […]