Australian Dollar Rally ends – Bernanke steals the punch bowl

Ben Bernanke stole the punch bowl for commodities and commodity currencies last night which had rallied on the back of the Chinese rate cuts and freeing up of deposit and lending rate controls. But the Fed Chairman with his usual equanimity simply didn’t want to play ball and add more stimulus and markets were no […]

RBA rate cut – 25 or 50 points.

I think by now its clear that the RBA went 50 basis points last month because it knew that the economy needed some monetary stimulus but equally that the Banks were going to hold some back. The Majors were actually more generous in passing on a big proportion of the cuts than some of the […]

Markets – Time for a bounce?

On Saturday morning I sat down and wrote the Trading week wrap over at MacroBusiness where I looked at a number of markets and what the price action and thus the technicals, mostly, suggested about the near term direction. After a week like last week I expected to have my bearish bias reinforced but by […]

Australian Dollar to 90 cents?

As a mate of mine just said to me – the Aussie Dollar looks like a lead canoe this morning and my thoughts on it heading below parity remain undiminished. Here is the chart of how it looks at present and nothing in the fundamental outlook has changed from the piece I wrote the other […]

Aussie Dollar – not drowning waving

The Australian dollar is doing exceptionally well all things considered – it’s a fair to say that with the weakening Australian profile that prompted the RBA to cut rates this week we could have probably expected that the Aussie would at least retest the very important support zone at 1.0220/40. Tonight the key short term region is […]

Australian Dollar Outlook – bulls on the run

Well the Chinese PMI bounce faded quickly for the Aussie Dollar didn’t it. As I said on Sunday/Monday, I am looking forward to the next few days trade before Easter because it will tell us a lot about where the market is positioned and what it believes. So we had a brief rally earlier this week but […]

Australian Dollar Debate – up OR down?

My piece yesterday where I declared myself now a bear on the Aussie Dollar in a medium term sense expecting it to trade under parity at some point as opposed to breaking back higher elicited some interesting direct feedback from readers and mates in the markets via email. The primary discussion was two fold: The […]

Australian Dollar Outlook – near term

I heard the other day that Australian Corporates have been buying a little Aussie lately which struck me as odd given how high it is but equally suggested the fear of further rises that is permeating Corporate Australia as I have written a few times in the past couple of weeks. So given the Aussie […]

How high can the Australian Dollar go?

Joint post this morning with from a mate who is a Forex Dealer for one of the Big Shops, lets call him “Omid” as in the Persian word for Hope, on where he reckons the Aussie Dollar might go this year. When measured by the annual range the Aussie Dollar has always been a volatile currency but the […]

Why the Australian Dollar is doing so well!

Thin slicing is both a reality and a biological necessity. Whether it’s Malcolm Gladwell in “Blink” or Daniel Kahneman’s System 1  in his latest brilliant book, “Thinking Fast and Slow”  the reality is that there is a part of our brain that, in Kahneman’s words  operates automatically and quickly, with little or no effort and no sense of voluntary […]