Australian Dollar failing at resistance

Last night’s price action in the Euro and the US Dollar suggested, quite rightly, that the market remains worried about Spain. Indeed the Spanish 10 year yield closed at 7.16% and the Euro fell back from the Asian highs. The Australian Dollar on the other hand has been holding in really well and sits just […]

RBA rate cut – 25 or 50 points.

I think by now its clear that the RBA went 50 basis points last month because it knew that the economy needed some monetary stimulus but equally that the Banks were going to hold some back. The Majors were actually more generous in passing on a big proportion of the cuts than some of the […]

US Jobs data hits markets – Aussie Dollar and Euro bounce

By Greg McKenna Stocks plunged more than 2 percent in the US on Friday as the release of a terribly low non-farm payrolls result of just 69,000 and an uptick in the unemployment rate suggest that the US recovery is faltering. The Dow has been dragged into negative territory for the year now and the […]

RBA Panic? Not on your Nellie!

The RBA has done the right thing and let the inflation outlook give them room to cut rates. The Wordle summary is below and highlights the key drivers of growth and inflation. So in the context of what they said last month, and where the economy is I find it interesting to have read many comments about the […]

The RBA will cut today and then at least 3 more times

The RBA is going to cut today it seems but my sense is they will do so reluctantly and with extreme caution as they remain concerned about the impact of Mining Boom Mark II after the inflationary pulse in 2008 that was a direct result of the extra burden that Mining Boom I placed on the […]

The Australian Dollar remains vulnerable

The Aussie has spent the last 24 hours working off the extreme oversold position on the hourly charts but it continues to remain vulnerable and I remain committed to my view it is going below parity as articulated recently when I said, I’m going to make a big call and say that on the basis of my fundamental […]

Australian Dollar Outlook – bulls on the run

Well the Chinese PMI bounce faded quickly for the Aussie Dollar didn’t it. As I said on Sunday/Monday, I am looking forward to the next few days trade before Easter because it will tell us a lot about where the market is positioned and what it believes. So we had a brief rally earlier this week but […]

RBA is going to ease but moving ahead backwards.

It is fairly clear that the Australian economy is softening. It is fairly clear that there is not one but two structural changes occurring in the economy – Mining and Debt reduction or de-leveraging of Households. It is fairly clear that inflation around the globe and in Australia is moderating. It is also fairly clear that Monetary […]

RBA should cut – the paradox of thrift is killing the economy.

I’m only going to be quick today because readers know my view – the Australian economy is structurally and fundamentally weaker than the aggregate numbers suggest. It is a long term weakness born of the debt binge between 1995 and 2009 which is so evident in the chart above from the RBA’s march Financial Stability […]

Chinese PMI feeds the debate – what will risk assets do?

I’m writing this Sunday night Newcastle time (GMT +10) and I’m guessing that tomorrow mornings open is going to be a pretty good one for the Aussie Dollar and for risk assets. The reason for this is that the Chinese data out over the weekend was not as bad as the Flash Chinese PMI suggested […]