Employment Strong…

I am on the road again but the employment report was released this morning and proved once again why I stopped trading it in 1990 – too much volatility.

Here is a quick snapshot.

The headline increase of 23,400 jobs, which was ahead of market expectation of a rise of 15,000, consisting of a large swing between part time to full time employment. The unemployment rate remained unchanged in both seasonally adjusted and trend terms at 4.9%. while the trend monthly change was revised up slightly to 3,800 from 1,800 in May.

After a large drop over the past two months, of close to 85k after revisions, full time jobs jumped by 59,000 in June while part time employment fell by 35,600. The number of hours being work is likely to be having some bearing on the large swings between full and part time over the past few months (the magical number is 35 hours which distinguishes full time from part time) however that theory is purely speculative.

Nevertheless total employment in Australia has only grown by 45,600 since the beginning of the year, well short of the 176,400 the previous 6 months before that and the 362,000 over the preceding 12 months. One positive though it the entire gain has been full time employment which is up 50,300 for the past 6 months (entirely due to the June bounce however) while there are 4,700 less part time jobs.

Good news is hard to find lately so let’s enjoy it.

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