Merry Christmas

December 21, 2011

Interesting Links

All of us at Lighthouse would like to wish you and yours the best for the holiday season.

2011 has been a tumultuous year.

We started out with sanguine markets and a sanguine RBA and clients beating us up for being too pessimistic. We understood the reticence to buy the bad news but unfortunately we were right.

Europe is a basket case, Asia can’t avoid the mess, the US is just least ugly and Australia was just plain lucky in GFC Mark 1.

The chickens are now coming home to roost.

But the clients we encouraged to hedge their equities and head toward Australian ADI TD’s in April are killing it.

The currency traders who followed our thoughts know that currency markets are hard but callable.

The interest rate traders that believed in our structural savings call for Australia are now retired, happy and playing golf.

But like Miss Du from SAFE once told me….”Mr McKenna that was last year. What should I do now?”

Dear readers, we still value circumspection over aggression,  unless you are an experienced trader happy to move in or out of the market. We still believe volatility is at hand, but hope that our experience that extreme volatility begets benign volatility bears fruit. But most of all we hope politicians can just agree a sustainable plan – even a bad but sustainable plan is better then what Europe and the world has now.

What do we know?

We know that we don’t know as much as we thought. That the global economy is still probably years away from cleansing, that we are looking forward to the rally of 2017/18.

We also know the Lighthouse team, along with the MB team, is going to be strengthened with new members including Lisa McKenna, my soulmate and the person who taught me much of what I know about FX, called ab RBA rate cut in April and taught me more about life then life has. I look forward to her posts.

But more than anything I look forward to learning more about people and markets. I look forward to finishing Daniel Kahneman’s latest book, “thinking fast and slow”. For students of markets it is a must read.

I’ll wish you a Merry Christmas but whatever your beliefs can I wish you and your family a happy and safe year ahead with a road that rises up to meet you and challenges that you can handle and enrich you.

Keep well.

Greg McKenna and the Lighthouse Team

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2 Comments on “Merry Christmas”

  1. Richard Says:

    Greg,

    In case our Christmas card does not reach you in time (usual efficiency around here at the big red W) all the very best for the holiday period and particularly for the new year.

    Cheers

    Richard

    Reply

  2. shane Says:

    Best to you and yours too Greg & team.

    Reply

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