March 7, 2012


This is key to the Aussie Dollar and overall 5 month old risk rally so the identified level above is one to watch.

Remember though I always respect trend lines until they are broken – preempting a break is always dangerous.


Usual disclaimer – this is not advice to trade and your individual circumstances have not been considered.

Global Macro Monitor

We posted last week that the S&P500 could go to 1340 and then we’d reconsider our market view.  Interestingly,  today’s low on the cash S&P500 was 1340.03.

We also had doubts there were enough sellers to take equities down.   It looks like the profit taking in Apple, which hurt us,  prior to tomorrow’s announcement and worries over closing the Greek bond swap were enough to spank equities, however.   Not to mention worries over Chinese growth.

We now think 1320, which coincides with the trend line in the move since October and the 50-day moving average is THE entry point and THE  line in the sand.  This is a healthy pullback unless Europe starts to unravel again.

Stay flexible.

(click here if chart is not observable)

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