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We’re moving

July 3, 2012

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  After more than a year and 340 posts I pleased to announce that the Lighthouse Securities Blog is moving, well closing really. As you know I am a writer over at MacroBusiness which is clearly Australia’s leading finance, investment and economics blog. Macro Business is evolving and yesterday we released the first edition of our […]

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Minsky was right – how the Great Moderation caused this Great Recession

May 15, 2012

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The Great Moderation was a phrase apparently coined by James Stock of Harvard and Mark Watson of Princeton. It was, for those of us who are devotees of Hyman Minsky, simply the precursor to a more volatile period to come. And while not many people on the planet foresaw this Great Recession we call the […]

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David Stockman is bearish on everything

March 5, 2012

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Further to my piece earlier about potentially too many bears and the history of economies and markets I offer this piece I picked up at business insider over the weekend. David Stockman was a budget hawk back in the Reagan Days, he then moved onto corporate buyouts But spend time with him and you discover […]

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Who’s sick of being pessimistic? Me and the market.

January 19, 2012

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Earlier this month I said So we could see a de-coupling between economic outcomes and market performance particularly should quantitative easing recommence in the US, Europe and the UK I really think this is and remains a tradable investment theme in at least the first part of 2012 and the equity market, as represented by […]

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Equity Market Positioning Stretched

September 15, 2011

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As I wrote earlier this morning I woke up feeling very different about markets than when I went to bed last night. Here is a few other things that helped colour my thinking this morning and while they don’t indicate that the only way is up they do suggest that pricing and positioning has become […]

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Markets to bounce? – thoughts on Merkel, Sarkozy and Papendreou

September 15, 2011

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I write this not with trepidation. Trepidation because it goes counter to what I have been writing lately and trepidation because it is even different to what I thought when I went to bed last night. It is still not a fully formed view but I would pose the question to readers, Could we have […]

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Just back from Thailand – how does the market and economy look?

August 16, 2011

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Markets were up again overnight, well at least equities and risk assets including the AUD, as the market recovered from the recent volatility as we thought it would. It poses an interesting question about time frames and one that investors should always remember. That is, don’t mix up your time frames. If you are a […]

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US Debt Downgrade – just another phase of the GFC.

August 8, 2011

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In February 2009 after I came back from holidays in Yamba I sat down with a mentor and mapped out how we thought the crisis would manifest over the coming years. I had a massive advantage over many investors and traders in that in my research I had stumbled upon a book written in 1996 by a […]

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Crash – markets take a hit.

August 5, 2011

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Last night’s price action in equity markets was terrible with the Dow Jones off more than 500 points or 4.3% and the S&P 500 falling a full 60 points or 4.78%. European Bourses were not off as materially but with losses of more than 3% it was hardly a comfortable night’s trade. The corollary of these equity crashes […]

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Must Read – the smartest man in Europe is worried

July 20, 2011

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Byron Wein is one of those market strategists that I don’t always agree with but who I always try to read because he mmakes me think and challenges my view point. he has posted a compelling commentary on the Blackstone website this month titled “The Smartest man in Europe Is Very Cautious“. The back ground is that […]

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