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We’re moving

July 3, 2012

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  After more than a year and 340 posts I pleased to announce that the Lighthouse Securities Blog is moving, well closing really. As you know I am a writer over at MacroBusiness which is clearly Australia’s leading finance, investment and economics blog. Macro Business is evolving and yesterday we released the first edition of our […]

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On the RBA, GDP and the Australian Dollar

June 7, 2012

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I haven’t posted much this week as I have been busy so please don’t think I’ve been dodging my recession call in the wake of yesterday’s stellar GDP release. I’m about to hit the road so here are some quick thoughts. On the current market bounce: The markets good too bearish, priced too much in […]

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RBA rate cut – 25 or 50 points.

June 5, 2012

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I think by now its clear that the RBA went 50 basis points last month because it knew that the economy needed some monetary stimulus but equally that the Banks were going to hold some back. The Majors were actually more generous in passing on a big proportion of the cuts than some of the […]

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RBA Panic? Not on your Nellie!

May 1, 2012

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The RBA has done the right thing and let the inflation outlook give them room to cut rates. The Wordle summary is below and highlights the key drivers of growth and inflation. So in the context of what they said last month, and where the economy is I find it interesting to have read many comments about the […]

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The RBA will cut today and then at least 3 more times

May 1, 2012

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The RBA is going to cut today it seems but my sense is they will do so reluctantly and with extreme caution as they remain concerned about the impact of Mining Boom Mark II after the inflationary pulse in 2008 that was a direct result of the extra burden that Mining Boom I placed on the […]

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RBA is going to ease but moving ahead backwards.

April 3, 2012

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It is fairly clear that the Australian economy is softening. It is fairly clear that there is not one but two structural changes occurring in the economy – Mining and Debt reduction or de-leveraging of Households. It is fairly clear that inflation around the globe and in Australia is moderating. It is also fairly clear that Monetary […]

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RBA should cut – the paradox of thrift is killing the economy.

April 3, 2012

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I’m only going to be quick today because readers know my view – the Australian economy is structurally and fundamentally weaker than the aggregate numbers suggest. It is a long term weakness born of the debt binge between 1995 and 2009 which is so evident in the chart above from the RBA’s march Financial Stability […]

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RBA holds rates steady – Welcome to goldilocks land

March 6, 2012

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Cross Posted from MacroBusiness where I write as Deus Forex Machina The Reserve Bank (RBA) surprised no one by holding rates steady this afternoon after this mornings Board meeting.  It really is a complete rehash of the combination of the last statement and Glenn Stevens address to Parliament back on February 24th. The economy still has […]

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RBA day, no cut – has anything changed from last month?

March 6, 2012

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Today’s RBA Board meeting should be a non-event. It’s almost impossible to see given what the RBA said last month and has said in the intervening period for them to do anything but hold rates steady and still maintain any semblance of credibility. The last part of that sentence was probably a little more aggressive than […]

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RBA goes back to the future – Mining will save us

February 7, 2012

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Yesterday the RBA decided to leave rates on hold, much to my chagrin to be honest. But it’s not the first time I have differed in my views from the RBA – last year when they were talking up rates was just the most recent case in point. But in the spirit of what I saw […]

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