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OECD leading indicators point to diverging economic activity

June 12, 2012

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Originally posted on Global Macro Monitor:
The OECD reported today, Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend continue to point to divergence between economies. The CLIs for Japan, the United States and Russia continue to signal improvements in economic activity. However, the deceleration in these countries’ CLIs…

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The RBA will cut and keep rates lower for longer

May 15, 2012

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Over at MacroBusiness yesterday Houses and Holes covered a speech by the RBA’s Phil Lowe in which the RBA confessed it had gotten the economy wrong. The conclusion was, rightly, that rates can fall further in the period ahead. For me, however, the thing that stood out was not just that rates are going lower but […]

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How Bearish should you be about the Australian Dollar?

April 10, 2012

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How bearish on the Australian dollar, how bearish on equities, how bullish on bonds? It’s an interesting question isn’t it? If it were May it would be easy – sell and go away as the old adage says. But April? I’d posit, I guess O have been for a while now, that the broader market […]

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March 7, 2012

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Originally posted on Global Macro Monitor:
This is a must view for all investors and traders.   Daniel Kahneman is the only non-economist to win the Nobel Prize in economics and his work provides key insights into market, investor, and trader biases.   There is  no doubt, at least to us, the markets “think fast” and “think…

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March 7, 2012

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Originally posted on Global Macro Monitor:
We posted last week that the S&P500 could go to 1340 and then we’d reconsider our market view.  Interestingly,  today’s low on the cash S&P500 was 1340.03. We also had doubts there were enough sellers to take equities down.   It looks like the profit taking in Apple, which hurt…

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February 28, 2012

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Originally posted on marketbeat:
Oil producers normally find it in their best interest to add steadily to productive capacity. Gradual addition of capacity year after year keeps oil supply in rough equilibrium with demand as the global economy grows. Mild shortages and surpluses sometimes arise, but they are quickly addressed by market forces so long as…

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February 27, 2012

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Originally posted on CMC Markets Blog:
The Aussie rejects a trend line support on Friday and in doing so has confirmed a downward sloping trend channel formation. Given the overall structure of this chart at the moment this looks like something that could lead to a buy set up. The channel appears in blue on the chart…

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2012: Sovereign Risk Compression

February 8, 2012

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Originally posted on Global Macro Monitor:
Great data from Bespoke.  Looks like Portugal is the odd man out as the only government in which its CDS spreads have widened this year. (click here if table is not observable)

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January 20, 2012

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Originally posted on Global Macro Monitor:
R.I.P, Eastman Kodak, may you rise like a Phoenix out of bankruptcy.   If only you were owned by the government,  Larry Wood, as pictured below, might still have his job doing the same work he was doing in 1968. (click here if charts are not observable)

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Greece to Vote on Euro Membership – EU break up?

November 2, 2011

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Bloomberg just put up a headline which said *GREEKS TO VOTE ON EURO MEMBERSHIP IN REFERENDUM: PAPANDREOU Which has been followed up just now by a story which says Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou told his ministers in Athens today that his plans for a referendum would confirm Greece as a member of the European Union […]

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