Tag Archives: Australian Economy

RBA rate cut – 25 or 50 points.

June 5, 2012

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I think by now its clear that the RBA went 50 basis points last month because it knew that the economy needed some monetary stimulus but equally that the Banks were going to hold some back. The Majors were actually more generous in passing on a big proportion of the cuts than some of the […]

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Australian miracle ending, Dollar sell off not finished yet

June 1, 2012

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By Greg McKenna May was a big month for me – I made some big calls which, as we enter June I am more convinced in then even at the time I first made them. The first big call was the question of whether or not Australia might be facing a recession which I posed […]

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Sell in May – Markets have a shocker

June 1, 2012

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By Greg McKenna We saw a bit of position squaring yesterday for month end after assets like the Aussie Dollar made a fresh low for the year before rallying. Likewise in US equities the early weakness gave way to a better performance but by the end of play the pressure was unable to be withstood […]

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Market Rout Intensifies

May 18, 2012

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I’ve posted the links and the MacroBusiness morning over at MacroBusiness today and I wanted to highlight a few things. Firstly, after a brief hiatus in Asian trade yesterday the selling returned with a vengeance overnight in equity markets as the pending Euro implosion gather steam. Indeed UK Prime Minister David Cameron ratcheted up the […]

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Market rout continues – thoughts on current market turmoil

May 15, 2012

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Morning – I am covering both Morning Links and the MacroBusiness morning this week and I thought that this mornings market wrap might be instructive as to my thoughts on the markets more broadly for those who follow my thoughts. Here is the link to MacroBusiness morning but in summary this sell off looks to […]

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Australian Dollar to 90 cents?

May 9, 2012

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As a mate of mine just said to me – the Aussie Dollar looks like a lead canoe this morning and my thoughts on it heading below parity remain undiminished. Here is the chart of how it looks at present and nothing in the fundamental outlook has changed from the piece I wrote the other […]

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Budget 2012 – Pass or Fail?

May 9, 2012

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When you run a big business like Australia you need to take  account of many all your stakeholders and you make choices. That’s what Labour has done last night – they have favoured their political constituency at home over the wealthier. They have played to the international audience by delivering a surplus HEADLINE – this keeps […]

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Australian Recession coming?

May 4, 2012

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Two things happened yesterday that suggest to me that the Australian economy could be headed for recession. The first was the collapse of the First Fleet trucking company and the second was the release of the Australian Industry Group’s Performance of Service Index (PSI) which slumped 7.4 points. Houses and Holes covered it well in […]

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Aussie Dollar – not drowning waving

May 3, 2012

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The Australian dollar is doing exceptionally well all things considered – it’s a fair to say that with the weakening Australian profile that prompted the RBA to cut rates this week we could have probably expected that the Aussie would at least retest the very important support zone at 1.0220/40. Tonight the key short term region is […]

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Squaring the Circle – bonds and equities cant both be right

May 3, 2012

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While I was on holidays in Fiji recently I read a book about the Archimedes Palimpsest which was my first real exposure to the study of Archimedean and Greek mathematics outside of school. It really was fascinating but in the context of markets and the economy I was struck by the quote attributed to him […]

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