Tag Archives: RBA to cut rates

RBA rate cut – 25 or 50 points.

June 5, 2012

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I think by now its clear that the RBA went 50 basis points last month because it knew that the economy needed some monetary stimulus but equally that the Banks were going to hold some back. The Majors were actually more generous in passing on a big proportion of the cuts than some of the […]

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Market rout continues – thoughts on current market turmoil

May 15, 2012

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Morning – I am covering both Morning Links and the MacroBusiness morning this week and I thought that this mornings market wrap might be instructive as to my thoughts on the markets more broadly for those who follow my thoughts. Here is the link to MacroBusiness morning but in summary this sell off looks to […]

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Australian Recession coming?

May 4, 2012

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Two things happened yesterday that suggest to me that the Australian economy could be headed for recession. The first was the collapse of the First Fleet trucking company and the second was the release of the Australian Industry Group’s Performance of Service Index (PSI) which slumped 7.4 points. Houses and Holes covered it well in […]

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RBA Panic? Not on your Nellie!

May 1, 2012

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The RBA has done the right thing and let the inflation outlook give them room to cut rates. The Wordle summary is below and highlights the key drivers of growth and inflation. So in the context of what they said last month, and where the economy is I find it interesting to have read many comments about the […]

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The RBA will cut today and then at least 3 more times

May 1, 2012

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The RBA is going to cut today it seems but my sense is they will do so reluctantly and with extreme caution as they remain concerned about the impact of Mining Boom Mark II after the inflationary pulse in 2008 that was a direct result of the extra burden that Mining Boom I placed on the […]

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The Australian Dollar remains vulnerable

April 5, 2012

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The Aussie has spent the last 24 hours working off the extreme oversold position on the hourly charts but it continues to remain vulnerable and I remain committed to my view it is going below parity as articulated recently when I said, I’m going to make a big call and say that on the basis of my fundamental […]

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Australian Dollar Outlook – bulls on the run

April 4, 2012

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Well the Chinese PMI bounce faded quickly for the Aussie Dollar didn’t it. As I said on Sunday/Monday, I am looking forward to the next few days trade before Easter because it will tell us a lot about where the market is positioned and what it believes. So we had a brief rally earlier this week but […]

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RBA is going to ease but moving ahead backwards.

April 3, 2012

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It is fairly clear that the Australian economy is softening. It is fairly clear that there is not one but two structural changes occurring in the economy – Mining and Debt reduction or de-leveraging of Households. It is fairly clear that inflation around the globe and in Australia is moderating. It is also fairly clear that Monetary […]

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RBA should cut – the paradox of thrift is killing the economy.

April 3, 2012

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I’m only going to be quick today because readers know my view – the Australian economy is structurally and fundamentally weaker than the aggregate numbers suggest. It is a long term weakness born of the debt binge between 1995 and 2009 which is so evident in the chart above from the RBA’s march Financial Stability […]

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Australian Dollar Debate – up OR down?

March 30, 2012

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My piece yesterday where I declared myself now a bear on the Aussie Dollar in a medium term sense expecting it to trade under parity at some point as opposed to breaking back higher elicited some interesting direct feedback from readers and mates in the markets via email. The primary discussion was two fold: The […]

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