Tag Archives: RBA

Does the inverse Aussie curve spell recession?

June 21, 2012

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Wives tales and Murphy’s Law persist for a reason. As I’m oft heard saying “Murphy’s Law wouldn’t be a law if it wasn’t true” So there are “market laws” as well. Old axioms that have persisted through time largely because of a good track record and predictive ability. One of these market laws is that […]

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The RBA will cut and keep rates lower for longer

May 15, 2012

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Over at MacroBusiness yesterday Houses and Holes covered a speech by the RBA’s Phil Lowe in which the RBA confessed it had gotten the economy wrong. The conclusion was, rightly, that rates can fall further in the period ahead. For me, however, the thing that stood out was not just that rates are going lower but […]

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Australians aren’t whinging about the economy – they are reflecting their reality

May 7, 2012

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I have long been advocating that there is a disconnect between policy makers and the media and what is happening in the real Australian economy in this GFC influenced world. I’m neither the first nor the last but as we head toward and Australian Austerity style Federal Budget and I hear people trotting out the […]

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RBA Panic? Not on your Nellie!

May 1, 2012

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The RBA has done the right thing and let the inflation outlook give them room to cut rates. The Wordle summary is below and highlights the key drivers of growth and inflation. So in the context of what they said last month, and where the economy is I find it interesting to have read many comments about the […]

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How Bearish should you be about the Australian Dollar?

April 10, 2012

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How bearish on the Australian dollar, how bearish on equities, how bullish on bonds? It’s an interesting question isn’t it? If it were May it would be easy – sell and go away as the old adage says. But April? I’d posit, I guess O have been for a while now, that the broader market […]

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RBA day, no cut – has anything changed from last month?

March 6, 2012

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Today’s RBA Board meeting should be a non-event. It’s almost impossible to see given what the RBA said last month and has said in the intervening period for them to do anything but hold rates steady and still maintain any semblance of credibility. The last part of that sentence was probably a little more aggressive than […]

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The week that was in markets and economies

February 13, 2012

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The last week was really interesting – here is a quick summation of what we reckon was important. Australia It all starts and finishes with the Reserve Bank – 24 of 27 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg thought the RBA was going to cut rates. We thought so too, but the RBA seemed to content itself […]

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RBA goes back to the future – Mining will save us

February 7, 2012

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Yesterday the RBA decided to leave rates on hold, much to my chagrin to be honest. But it’s not the first time I have differed in my views from the RBA – last year when they were talking up rates was just the most recent case in point. But in the spirit of what I saw […]

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Aussie Dollar Outlook- perfect storm for business.

February 7, 2012

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Here’s a question for you. What does a US job market recovery, low rates from the Fed, ECB, BOE and a rally in risk assets equal. TROUBLE! Trouble for Australian Manufacturing, trouble for Australian Tourism operators , trouble for Australian Universities and the outward facing education sector in general, trouble for Australian retailers, trouble for […]

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Deeper Insights – thoughts on the Crisis

November 10, 2011

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With markets so volatile and the European situation in the headlines every day it is hard to pull your eyes away from the screens and think about the bigger picture. At the Overseas Terminal down at Circular Quay on Tuesday however Westpac did just that. For a select audience of around 250 clients the institutional […]

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