Tag Archives: Reserve Bank

On the RBA, GDP and the Australian Dollar

June 7, 2012

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I haven’t posted much this week as I have been busy so please don’t think I’ve been dodging my recession call in the wake of yesterday’s stellar GDP release. I’m about to hit the road so here are some quick thoughts. On the current market bounce: The markets good too bearish, priced too much in […]

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RBA rate cut – 25 or 50 points.

June 5, 2012

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I think by now its clear that the RBA went 50 basis points last month because it knew that the economy needed some monetary stimulus but equally that the Banks were going to hold some back. The Majors were actually more generous in passing on a big proportion of the cuts than some of the […]

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Sell in May – Markets have a shocker

June 1, 2012

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By Greg McKenna We saw a bit of position squaring yesterday for month end after assets like the Aussie Dollar made a fresh low for the year before rallying. Likewise in US equities the early weakness gave way to a better performance but by the end of play the pressure was unable to be withstood […]

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The RBA will cut and keep rates lower for longer

May 15, 2012

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Over at MacroBusiness yesterday Houses and Holes covered a speech by the RBA’s Phil Lowe in which the RBA confessed it had gotten the economy wrong. The conclusion was, rightly, that rates can fall further in the period ahead. For me, however, the thing that stood out was not just that rates are going lower but […]

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Market rout continues – thoughts on current market turmoil

May 15, 2012

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Morning – I am covering both Morning Links and the MacroBusiness morning this week and I thought that this mornings market wrap might be instructive as to my thoughts on the markets more broadly for those who follow my thoughts. Here is the link to MacroBusiness morning but in summary this sell off looks to […]

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Australian Dollar Breakdown – Bulls run away.

May 7, 2012

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Cross posted with MacroBusiness. The confluence of events over the past week has taken the wind from the Australian Dollar’s sails and contributed to the drop through support in a manner that suggests this move has further to run.  Indeed I have been calling it back below parity for some time now – we just […]

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RBA Panic? Not on your Nellie!

May 1, 2012

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The RBA has done the right thing and let the inflation outlook give them room to cut rates. The Wordle summary is below and highlights the key drivers of growth and inflation. So in the context of what they said last month, and where the economy is I find it interesting to have read many comments about the […]

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The RBA will cut today and then at least 3 more times

May 1, 2012

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The RBA is going to cut today it seems but my sense is they will do so reluctantly and with extreme caution as they remain concerned about the impact of Mining Boom Mark II after the inflationary pulse in 2008 that was a direct result of the extra burden that Mining Boom I placed on the […]

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Australian Dollar Outlook – bulls on the run

April 4, 2012

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Well the Chinese PMI bounce faded quickly for the Aussie Dollar didn’t it. As I said on Sunday/Monday, I am looking forward to the next few days trade before Easter because it will tell us a lot about where the market is positioned and what it believes. So we had a brief rally earlier this week but […]

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RBA is going to ease but moving ahead backwards.

April 3, 2012

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It is fairly clear that the Australian economy is softening. It is fairly clear that there is not one but two structural changes occurring in the economy – Mining and Debt reduction or de-leveraging of Households. It is fairly clear that inflation around the globe and in Australia is moderating. It is also fairly clear that Monetary […]

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